"* Everyone is wrong in the markets at times. The difference between the great traders and the unsuccessful ones is in how long they stay wrong.
* Addictive traders get high from action; great traders get high from mastering markets--and mastering themselves.
* Great traders do their best work when they are not trading; unsuccessful traders do not work when they are not trading.
* Every loss of discipline is a self-betrayal; great traders are true to themselves and stay disciplined as a result.
* Great traders focus on the two things they can always control: when they play and how much they bet."
I've got a friend who I think lost his mind. He got crushed on a contrarian bet on Blockbuster Video. Probably bought a ton of calls at a point in time, and they expired worthless. I can't stand talking to him about investing and avoid it at all costs because he acts like he knows everything.
I'm under the impression that in investing/trading people, me and you, know nothing. We are largely wrong in conclusions no matter what we do. The world evolves quickly in competition, policies, expectations, psychology, greed, etc. that it is extremely difficult to predict the future.
So, I'm talking to my friend who just loaded the boat on this thing again?
It's human nature to want to prove yourself correct. I've had this happen to me before and it's a lesson we should not forget. If the environment proves you wrong and you know you can't change the environment then why try again? (in a particular security issue that is)
Or maybe this is a good risk reward? I just think it's his head playing games based on his historical interaction with this company.
All I can say is good luck.