The truth of the matter is, nobody knows what happens next ever. There is no certainty in any type of investment/trading decision. I don't care what anyone says there is always a lack of clarity between this moment and the next.
I was positioned correctly shorting the long end of the treasury curve and sure enough someone came to me and said, "the government is buying these bonds why are you betting against this?" Shortly after I exited the trade with a good profit but half of what I could of made. The fact of the matter is everyone knew the government was buying this and they new it for the past 4 months! It was already factored and I knew that that is why I was positioned correctly.
Let this be a lesson.